Emptiness

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I just got back from my 6am jog. I feel so tired, like I haven't slept all night. Still, I've been feeling even more tired than this so many times. My parents suggested that I get something to eat as I opened the door. I guess I woke them up.

For a while I was stuck behind a woman who was walking her dog. It was unleashed, and every now and then it would stop and sniff at some plant or whatever took its interest. When things like this happen I sometimes have trouble overtaking them and just walk uncomfortably slower.

As we went around a curve in the road there was a kid walking down the path going the other way. I guess it was a bit strange because he was wearing a bag as if he were a student, but walking away from the station. He looked up and gave a cheery smile to the woman. As he passed he looked back down and gradually his smile dropped and the brightness left his eyes. I could almost hear the mental sigh he must have had. Gradually generally implies slowness, but this wasn't really slow. I mean gradually as in, you could see the transformation of his face. Then he saw me and I guess we kind of stared a bit, before we passed each other as well.

It's not such a bad thing to fake a smile, is it? Happiness starts a chain of happiness, sadness starts a chain of sadness. You can avoid starting a chain and the world will be a happier place.

I don't know why I decided to write this, and in this way. I guess I just felt like it would have been an interesting moment if someone was there to see it. Now it's here, I guess. I should probably go and eat a little, shower, get some sleep, and write this post another day.

-----

I once had the idea that every probability is actually 50/50. So even though the weather says today is 10% chance of raining, it's actually 50%. I think I might have mentioned this some time ago and explained it poorly.

And the reasoning behind that is something like "well, it didn't rain today, but that's nothing out of the ordinary because it was 50/50 anyway". In other words, a 50/50 system has a chance of behaving like a 10/90. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary to flip 1 heads and 9 tails. It wouldn't be impossible to flip 1 heads and 9999999 tails. Given enough 50/50 universes, say, infinite, then an also infinite number of these universes would exhibit 10/90 behaviour.

I guess it should actually be every probability might be 50/50, rather than every probability is 50/50.

I'm bringing this up because I realised how much I've been applying this to my life.

I think I'm a rational person. Weigh up the costs and benefits, consider all possible outcomes. But when you throw in something uncertain in there, the costs and benefits become uncertain. This action has a chance to be worth "+5", but it also has a chance to be "-50". Since it's uncertain, the best thing you can do is take the expected value.

E.V. = p1*outcome1 + p2*outcome2 + ... + pN*outcomeN
where the sum of all probabilities (p1 .. pN) involved is 1

For example, suppose we have a fair coin, let heads = 1 and tails = -1. Expected value is 0.5*1 + 0.5*-1 = 0.

Unfortunately, for most things you don't really know the real probabilities. A coin is 0.5 and 0.5, sure. But what about the chance that it will rain today just from looking at the sky, especially with Sydney weather? What are the probabilities for that?

Since all probabilities could exhibit any behaviour, I tend to skew what I consider to be the real probability a little bit. I turn it from 99/1 (99% chance good) into 0.01/99.99 (99.99% chance bad), because both of these probabilities could end up with the same outcome. And with this, the expected value is negative, and I can rationally reject this course of action.

...

Yes, I'm quite aware of the irrationality behind that. There's this thing called gambler's fallacy. An example is "well, there have been 5 tails in a row now, surely the next one will be heads". Another example is "well, there have been 5 tails in a row now, surely the next one will be tails". Using the trends/behaviour of past outcomes to make assumptions about the next one.

I'm a risk averse person. Even though the expected value might be positive, risk is now a factor in my decision making process, and I will still avoid that action because the risk outweighs the expected benefit. So maybe it's not that I'm skewing the probabilities, but it's just that the risk is too high. That 1% of failure is too high.

And sometimes maybe it's because the benefit is too low. I'm 99% sure you are from New Zealand. I can ask you and if I'm right about it, that's nice I guess, but really nothing. If I'm wrong about it, I will be embarrassed and troubled for months.

...

No, I don't think through all of these things when I make a decision. I do it subconsciously like anyone else. I guess this is all just analysis of why I make poor indecisions.

-----

My grandfather on my mother's side passed away when I was 2-4 but most likely 3. I never knew him. I don't know if I've ever seen him. One of my earliest memories, or possibly my earliest memory is seeing my mother crying over the thing-he-was-lying-in. Not a coffin. Some thing that would keep his body cold.

When my parents came to Australia they didn't have much besides their skills. It must have been hard living off so little money. There wasn't enough to go back to visit, so they didn't.

When my grandmother on my mother's side passed away in 2011, we went back straight away. I never really knew her. We visited China several times, but I didn't have much interest in my relatives who were nice to me but I could barely speak to them and there were too many of them so each one was just another.

My brother rarely showed emotion. Maybe when we were growing up and spent some time together he was sometimes frustrated or annoyed at me, or maybe when he fought with my mother there was anger. But not the other emotions. You need all of them to be human. I copied many things from my brother, and exceeded him in many, but I think this is where I outdid him the most... it has been a very, very long time since I've had any emotion in front of my family. Maybe a few moments of restrained anger, sometimes.

It was surprising then, to see him in so much grief. He had fought with my mother a few days before that. It upset my mother so she decided to put off calling back for one night. She forgave my brother of course, but forgiveness can't stop this. Nothing can. I took away your last chance to talk to her...

... how strange, that my go to nouns for my parents are "mother" and "dad".

While my father was away being in another country for some reason, my grandmother helped my mum raise my brother. I don't know how much of that he remembers. I'm guessing he doesn't remember much of it, but rather that it happened. This woman had done so much to help my mother and brother.

Me... I was not sad. I did not grieve. I paid my respects, and respected this person I did not know. But inside I was empty. Maybe I was preoccupied with other things, but not really.

I would happily be a beggar if I could be with them again, she told me. She still misses them and regrets so much. Maybe this is something that stays with you until the grave.

All of their children had moved out. When this happens, you would be happy that your children are living their lives, but it would also get lonely. If they didn't move to Australia, they they probably would have lived with my mother's parents. My brother wouldn't have had to have such a neglected and lonely childhood. My mother could have had more time with the parents she loved so much. They gave up so much to be here. I wouldn't be here if they didn't make that sacrifice, I know, but I don't have many feelings much about it.

My mother has so many regrets, but at the same time she cared the most and did the most to stay in touch. My mother's sister didn't visit home much. My mother isn't happy about that and doesn't contact her often.

She would call back frequently. But sometimes she was impatient. Only so much happens in life. Every call was just the same thing. How is work? How is the family? Obviously this got really tedious, and sometimes she was frustrated.

But what about her mother? She had to live alone for 13 years, with nothing to do all day. A "narrow life". How many times did she cry to sleep from loneliness? That call might have been the highlight of her day. She must have been so happy every time there was a family gathering. And then so sad when the three storey house became soundless and empty again. You only really think about these things when it's too late. After they're already gone.

Oh, I would give so much just to talk to her again ... even if we just repeated the same stupid conversation, word for word, every day ... I would be so happy.